Monday fade, Sunday jump? What a year of EGX daily returns actually shows
Pend ran a calendar study on ~10 liquid names — EGX food, fertilizer, and chemicals plus ADIB UAE — using close-to-close daily % change from Jan 2025 through May 2026. Long histories cover roughly 330 Sunday–Thursday sessions each no Friday EGX trading . Pooled day-of-week averages historical only…
Pend ran a calendar study on ~10 liquid names — EGX food, fertilizer, and chemicals plus ADIB UAE — using close-to-close daily % change from Jan 2025 through May 2026. Long histories cover roughly 330 Sunday–Thursday sessions each no Friday EGX trading . Pooled day-of-week averages historical only — not a forecast : Monday ~−0.13% avg return, 43% win rate — the weakest day; Tuesday ~+0.20%; Wednesday ~+0.08% flat/choppy ; Thursday ~+0.44%, 56% wins; Sunday ~+0.52%, 52% wins — the strongest. Six of ten names had Sunday as their best average day; Monday was the worst for four. Overnight vs intraday matters: on Mondays, several names gapped up at the open vs the prior close but closed lower intraday — e.g. Juhayna averaged +0.19% overnight then −0.58% open→close. A weak-Monday read is often after the open, not blind at the bell. Sunday blends two moves: Thursday close → Sunday open multi-day gap plus the Sunday session itself. AMOC showed the largest Sunday effect in the set; ADIB leaned Sunday/Wednesday rather than the pure EGX food/fertilizer shape. Within the week, strength clustered at week start Sun and week end Thu ; Wednesday was the dullest mid-week slot. Monthly averages were stronger in Oct/Dec/Jan and weaker in May/Nov/Aug — but daily edges were tiny ~0.1–0.5% , not significance-tested, and exclude dividends, fees, and slippage. This is not a trading playbook. Past calendar tilts break in earnings, policy shocks, and crashes. Educational only — verify with your own data and issuer filings before any decision.
Topics
- Market microstructure
- Seasonality
- AMOC
- ADIB
- EGX food & fertilizer
Sources
- Pend: Internal — EGX day-of-week calendar study (Jan 2025–May 2026, close-to-close CSV series)